Fitch Ratings said in a new report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a temporary logistical supply shock, but it does not alter the broader structural trend in global oil markets.
The agency noted that a swift recovery in regional production, combined with strong growth in non-OPEC supply and the possibility of more decisive OPEC policy action, is expected to push the market back into surplus in the final quarter of 2026, putting downward pressure on prices once the strait reopens.
Fitch’s baseline forecast for Brent crude averages around $87 per barrel in 2026, based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by the end of July, implying a de facto closure period of about five months.
However, it stressed that the timing remains uncertain, leaving oil price risks bidirectional, with potential for both sharp gains and steep declines.
The agency said the recent surge in prices reflects a short-term logistical disruption rather than any permanent loss of production capacity, adding that it expects Brent to ease significantly after the peak disruption period between March and July.
Fitch also projected that the market would return to oversupply from September 2026, supported by the lack of major damage to regional oil infrastructure, rapid production recovery in the Middle East, and robust expansion in non-OPEC output.
It further highlighted that OPEC output could exceed pre-conflict quotas, reinforcing the expected supply surplus trend in the months ahead.
Under its assumptions, global oil supply in 2026 would be lower by an average of 2.9 million barrels per day compared with 2025 due to the temporary closure of Hormuz, regardless of any strategic reserve releases.
Despite this short-term tightening, Fitch expects a sharp return to surplus after the strait reopens, forecasting a glut of nearly 4 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026.
This oversupply, it said, would weigh heavily on prices and could drive Brent crude significantly lower, depending on OPEC policy decisions.
Overall, Fitch maintains that global supply will exceed demand on average throughout 2026, reinforcing its view that the current disruption is cyclical rather than structural.
