North Korea is appearing to recalibrate its foreign policy posture by distancing itself from longtime partner Iran and carefully managing its public messaging, in what South Korean lawmakers say may be an effort to preserve diplomatic flexibility for potential future engagement with the United States.
According to lawmakers briefed by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS), Pyongyang has not provided any weapons or material support to Iran since the outbreak of the conflict on February 28.
The intelligence assessment also noted that North Korea did not issue public condolences following reports of the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in airstrikes, nor did it send any message of congratulations after his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was reportedly named as successor, according to Reuters.
Lawmakers said the NIS briefing indicated that, unlike China and Russia — both of which have issued repeated statements on the conflict — North Korea’s Foreign Ministry has released only two restrained statements, reflecting a broader pattern of avoiding direct confrontation with U.S. President Donald Trump.
South Korean lawmaker Park Sun-won, who attended the closed-door briefing, said the intelligence agency views this restraint as a calculated strategy aimed at preserving diplomatic space ahead of possible geopolitical realignments, including a potential summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump.
The NIS also assessed that North Korea is facing growing economic pressure linked to the Middle East conflict, including disruptions in industrial supply chains, rising prices, and currency volatility. Pyongyang is also reportedly seeking to secure additional oil supplies from Russia to offset shortages.
At the Ninth Workers’ Party Congress in late February, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signaled conditional openness to dialogue with Washington, stating there was “no reason” the two countries could not improve relations if the United States recognizes North Korea’s nuclear status and ends what it calls hostile policy.
According to the NIS assessment, Kim’s remarks were intentionally calibrated to maintain the possibility of future engagement with Washington while positioning Pyongyang for a potential diplomatic opening after regional tensions subside.
