Kuwait recorded one of the largest increases in crude oil production among OPEC+ members in June, as Gulf oil supplies rebounded following the resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) July 2026 Oil Market Report.
The report showed Kuwait’s crude production climbed to 1.37 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, up from 740,000 bpd in May, marking an increase of approximately 630,000 bpd.
Across the Gulf, Saudi Arabia posted the largest production increase within OPEC+, raising output from 6.44 million bpd in May to 7.34 million bpd in June. Iraq increased production to 1.96 million bpd from 1.48 million bpd, while Libya produced 1.30 million bpd, slightly lower than the 1.33 million bpd recorded in May. Venezuela’s production remained unchanged at 1.08 million bpd.
The IEA said total OPEC crude production rose from 16.36 million bpd in May to 18.39 million bpd in June, while output from OPEC members participating in production-cut agreements reached 13.71 million bpd.
Among non-OPEC producers in the OPEC+ alliance, Russia increased production to 8.86 million bpd from 8.74 million bpd, while Kazakhstan’s output declined to 1.89 million bpd from 1.94 million bpd.
Mexico maintained steady production at 1.37 million bpd, and Oman’s output increased to 850,000 bpd from 820,000 bpd. Overall, OPEC+ production rose to 32.44 million bpd in June, compared with 30.30 million bpd in May.
Global Supply Recovery
The agency reported that global oil supply increased by 4.1 million bpd during June to 98.8 million bpd, driven primarily by the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and higher production across Gulf countries.
Despite the recovery, global oil supply remains around 9.4 million bpd below pre-conflict levels. The IEA expects average global supply to decline by 3.7 million bpd during 2026 before rebounding by 7.5 million bpd in 2027, assuming geopolitical tensions ease and maritime trade continues uninterrupted.
Gulf Exports Rebound
The report noted that total oil exports from Gulf producers, including shipments bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, increased by 6.5 million bpd in June to reach 16.1 million bpd.
However, exports remain significantly below the pre-conflict average of 24 million bpd. Crude oil and condensates accounted for nearly 85 percent of the monthly increase, supported by drawdowns from both floating and onshore inventories.
Demand and Prices
Global oil demand began recovering after falling to 97.9 million bpd in May, its lowest level of the year and about 5.3 million bpd below the corresponding period last year.
The IEA expects demand to rise by more than 8 million bpd by October, supported by the summer travel season and the release of deferred demand. Nevertheless, average global demand is projected to decline by 1 million bpd in 2026 before returning to growth of approximately 2 million bpd in 2027.
Benchmark crude prices continued to weaken through most of June as improved oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz eased supply concerns and increased expectations of a market surplus. North Sea benchmark crude fell to around $68 per barrel in early July before rebounding to approximately $77 per barrel following renewed geopolitical tensions.
The report also noted that global oil inventories rose by 21 million barrels in June—the first increase in four months, driven by higher seaborne shipments, while oil stocks in OECD countries declined by 62 million barrels, including 44 million barrels released from strategic government reserves.
