- Kuwait Petroleum Corporation expects the country to restore around 70 percent of its oil production within six to eight weeks of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, while refineries could return to normal operations in as little as three weeks.
Kuwait can restore approximately 70 percent of its normal oil production within six to eight weeks after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens to shipping traffic, according to Sheikh Khaled Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, Managing Director of Global Marketing at Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC).
Speaking at the Middle East Oil and Gas Conference organized by Standard & Poor’s Global Energy, Sheikh Khaled said the remaining 30 percent of production capacity would likely require an additional month to return to normal levels.
He also noted that Kuwait’s refining sector is expected to recover more quickly, with refineries projected to resume normal operations within two to three weeks following the restoration of regular shipping activity through the strategic waterway.
The forecast comes as energy markets assess the long-term impact of disruptions caused by the conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, which significantly reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
While Kuwait’s outlook suggests a relatively rapid recovery, other industry experts have offered more cautious timelines. Officials from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) indicated that shipping volumes through Hormuz may not return to pre-conflict levels until mid-2027, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates a broader recovery could take between six and eight months under favorable conditions.
Oil Prices Remain Volatile
The price of Kuwaiti crude fell by $12.48 to $105.03 per barrel in Tuesday’s trading, down from $117.51 per barrel recorded last Friday, according to figures released by KPC.
Despite the decline in Kuwaiti crude prices, international benchmarks moved higher amid renewed geopolitical tensions. Brent crude rose 1.6 percent to $97.56 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 1.7 percent to $95.37 per barrel.
Analysts attributed the gains to renewed military tensions in the Gulf, uncertainty surrounding negotiations between Washington and Tehran, and concerns about tightening global oil inventories.
The International Energy Agency has warned that global crude inventories could reach critically low levels before the peak summer demand season if current withdrawal rates continue.
Shipping Challenges Persist
Market participants continue to monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global energy supplies. Analysts note that efforts to fully restore shipping traffic face logistical and security challenges, including reports that sections of the waterway remain affected by maritime hazards left behind during the conflict.
Although shipping activity has shown signs of improvement, vessel traffic remains significantly below pre-conflict levels, raising concerns about the pace of recovery for regional exporters.
Iraq Expands Alternative Export Routes
In response to ongoing disruptions in Gulf shipping, Iraq is accelerating plans to diversify its export infrastructure.
Officials said Baghdad intends to more than triple crude exports through the northern pipeline network linking Iraq’s oil fields to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, targeting export capacity of 770,000 barrels per day within two and a half months.
The Iraqi government is also exploring additional export routes through Syria’s Mediterranean ports of Banias and Tartus as part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on Gulf shipping corridors and strengthen energy export resilience.
