Gulf Defies Geopolitical Storm as Global Investors Hold Firm
By Hermoine Macura-Noble
Special to The Times Kuwait
Despite the shadow of geopolitical tension hanging over the Middle East, the GCC is proving remarkably adept at something that once seemed improbable: convincing the world’s money that it is a safe, enduring, and strategically vital place to do business.
A major new survey of 2,043 investors across the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, and China – conducted by strategy firm Consulum in partnership with polling group HarrisX – finds that 82% of global investors express confidence in the Gulf’s economic outlook. More strikingly, 69% rate the region as a great or good place to invest or do business right now, at a moment when headlines from the wider Middle East remain troubling.
“The international investment community sees the Gulf’s economic story as one of sustained momentum,” said James Davies, CEO of Consulum. “Investors are not reacting to a geopolitical moment – they are making a long-term verdict on the strength and resilience of what the GCC has built.”
That verdict is well-founded in data. The World Bank projects GCC economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2025 and accelerate to 4.5% in 2026, driven by the anticipated rollback of OPEC+ oil production cuts and a robust expansion of non-oil sectors. These figures place the GCC materially ahead of the global average. The IMF projects worldwide growth at just 3.1% in 2026 – and at the upper end of emerging-market performance globally.
The UAE leads the pack. The World Bank forecasts UAE real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2025, with non-oil sectors accounting for the dominant share of that expansion. Saudi Arabia is not far behind at 3.8%, driven by Vision 2030’s relentless push to diversify the Kingdom away from hydrocarbons. Non-oil sectors now account for 73% of real GCC GDP, up from just 32% in early 2022 – a transformation that has fundamentally shifted how global capital views the region.
The survey also finds that 70% of international investors expect the GCC’s global economic importance to grow further over the next five years, with UK investors leading that optimism at 78%, followed by American investors at 74%.
The World Bank’s own assessment echoes that view. “Diversification and digital transformation are no longer optional. They are essential for long-term stability and prosperity,” says Safaa El Tayeb El Kogali, World Bank Division Director for the Gulf Cooperation Council. “Strategic investments in non-oil sectors and innovation will be critical to sustaining growth and stability.”
For investors weighing the Gulf against other emerging market destinations, the arithmetic is increasingly compelling. The IMF projects GCC inflation at just 2% in 2026. With GCC central banks pegged to the US dollar and expected to follow the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates, borrowing costs are set to ease – supporting credit expansion and private investment particularly in the non-oil sectors where most future growth lies.
Major international events further reinforce the long-term investment case: the AFC Asian Cup in 2027, the World Expo 2030, and the 2034 FIFA World Cup in Saudi Arabia together represent a multi-decade pipeline of infrastructure investment, tourism development, and global visibility. For investors with a five-to-ten year horizon, these are not incidental – they are the backbone of a growth story that transcends the current geopolitical moment.
The Gulf has spent a decade quietly building the case that it is more than an oil economy. The world’s investors, it appears, are finally convinced.
By Hermoine Macura-Noble
The first Australian English speaking News Anchor in the Middle East. She is also the Author of Faces of the Middle East and Founder of US-based 501c3 charity – The House of Rest which helps to ease the suffering of victims of war. For more from our Contributing Editor, you can follow her on Instagram, here.
