The 29th annual Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), finally came to a close in the early hours of Sunday, more than 33 hours behind its scheduled closing on Friday. The extra time was provided so that negotiators could reach a consensus on the final document of the conference.
As the meeting ran into overtime on Friday, there were frenzied attempts by representatives of developed nations and developing countries to bridge the chasm that continued to divide the two blocs. The main sticking point centered on richer countries providing financing for climate action in developing countries, the mode of financing, whether it is public grants or loans by multilateral banks and private financing institutions, and on the need to reduce fossil fuel use.
In the final statement issued by the COP29 presidency, at the end of talks on Saturday, richer nations promised to provide US$300 billion annually by 2035, triple the earlier support of $100 billion. Nevertheless, there were rumblings among some developing nations that the figure still fell far short of the $1.3 trillion they need to meet their mitigation and adaptation needs. The talks also failed to build on the agreement reached at COP28 to “transition away from fossil fuels”, instead choosing to discuss this further at COP30 next year in Brazil.
The $300 billion promised by developed countries was an improvement on the $250 billion offer they had made on Friday, which was criticized as being far too low by developing countries. Analysts point out that developed countries would require only modest increases on what they are already spending on climate finance to meet the proposed $300 billion annual target.
Moreover, the $50 billion in increased funding would largely come from raising the earlier promised contributions of $120 billion from multilateral banks and the $60 billion they said could be raised by ‘crowding-in’ funding from private investments. It is also worth noting in this regard that the $100 billion that developed countries promised earlier to deliver by 2020 met the targeted amount only in 2022.
The final draft also invited developing countries to contribute voluntarily and stressed that it would not affect their status as ‘developing’ nations at the UN. China, which is the second largest economy and currently the largest GHG emitter in the world , has shied away from being labeled a developed country in climate discussions. Beijing maintains that its developments are recent, and it bears no share in the earlier GHG emissions by developed countries blamed for the current climate crisis.
Meanwhile, a new report from Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent international scientific project, finds that the world is still far from realizing the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement aim of maintaining global temperature increases to well below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial era. Latest projections by CAT in early November showed that if current climate policies continue to be maintained, global temperature could rise 2.5 to 2.9℃ above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
According to the United Nations Climate Change agency, to help keep global warming to the 1.5C limit set by the Paris Agreement, GHG emissions, especially carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions need to be ‘net zero’ by 2050. Although many countries have indicated their net-zero targets, nearly all are unlikely to reach net zero emissions by the set timeframe.
The CAT report also reveals that if pledges and targets set by many nations to achieve net-zero emissions by or beyond 2050 are fully met, global temperature rise could be limited to 1.9 to 2.1℃ above pre-industrial level by 2100. Unless more drastic GHG reductions are urgently implemented, the world risks breaching the 1.5℃ temperature limit, both under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and by achieving net zero emissions past the 2050 deadline.
Science indicates that global GHG emissions need to fall 43 percent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, to limit global warming to 1.5°C. But a new report by the Global Carbon Project, the international climate research initiative, finds that global CO2 emissions are set to increase to 41.6 billion metric tons in 2024, with 90 percent of this total coming from burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.
The COP conferences, which have been held annually since 1992—except for the year 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic— is intended for governments to discuss and reach consensus on policies to address the climate crisis in all its dimensions, especially on limiting global temperature rise to 1.5℃, and gathering the financial resources needed to fund climate actions.
Although all Parties to the conference agree on the overarching importance of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to protect the environment, remaining within the 1.5℃ temperature limit, and helping developing countries financially to mitigate and adapt to climatic repercussions, reaching consensus on how specifics of these objectives are to be realized has proven elusive.
Finding consensus among the 196 signatories to the UNFCCC has often meant that COP gatherings in recent years ended up with a compromise final agreement that dilutes the ambitions aims expressed ahead of the talks. Even more tellingly, the pace and diligence in implementing agreements reached at COP gatherings in the past have been found wanting in many countries.
The fact that developed and developing countries hold opposing views on financing and GHG emission reductions, are further complicated by developing country groupings such the most vulnerable countries, small island states, the least developed countries as well as countries from Latin America, all having their own specific needs. It is no surprise therefore that COP29 ended up as, yet another reminder that setting ambitious goals without the resources to fund them, are likely to remain at best aspirational, not attainable goals.
On Friday, as discussions continued to find consensus on the ‘New Collective Quantified Goal’ (NCQG), which now stands at $300 billion annually, fossil fuel representatives. watching from the sidelines of the conference. are no doubt heaving a sigh of relief that the focus of annual climate talks has once again shifted to money matters rather than the all-important need to reduce GHG emissions caused by the use of fossil-fuels such as coal, oil and gas.
With fossil-fuel industry and country representatives often outnumbering other attendees, trust in the outcomes of climate talks at recent COP gatherings have been seriously eroded. There is an urgent need for a fully transparent approach to climate action, and the COP30 scheduled to be held under Brazilian presidency in Belém, Brazil, could be a starting point. Brazil should tighten rules on attendees by ensuring they make clear their affiliations, and also be more discerning when it comes to selecting corporate sponsors, to prevent conflicts of interest.
More importantly, global leaders need to realize there is no Plan B for our planet, this world is all we have. They need to show more leadership, prudence, commitment, and far more far-sightedness, thinking beyond their nation’s current economic growth and their immediate political needs. Unless the world effectively addresses climate change today, this defining issue of our time could very well become the existential threat of tomorrow.
