Kuwait’s power shortage to peak 1600 MW, this summer

Kuwait is facing a growing energy crisis, driven by an anticipated shortage in electricity supplies, particularly during the summer months when demand peaks.

According to available data, the energy shortage in Kuwait is projected to reach 1,600 MW during the summer of 2025. This shortage is expected to grow significantly, reaching 5,600 MW by the summer of 2029.

The energy sector in Kuwait is grappling with several challenges that make it likely for the electricity crisis experienced last summer to persist into the summer of 2025. This could lead to the need for purchasing energy from Gulf countries, with estimates suggesting that the cost of this purchase may exceed $100 million per month.

Additionally, programmed power outages might be implemented again to prevent the collapse of the electrical system. The lack of a strategic reserve further exacerbates the risk of power outages during emergency situations.

Advisor Engineer Najib Abdulrahman Al-Saad Al-Munifi emphasizes that the energy crisis in Kuwait necessitates a thorough analysis of its underlying causes and challenges. He advocates for the development of strategic solutions that will ensure the stability of electricity supplies in the future and address the growing demand, especially during peak consumption periods.

Al-Munifi states that Kuwait is currently facing a genuine energy crisis, which demands urgent and decisive action to prevent the situation from deteriorating in the coming years. He suggests that the key solutions lie in diversifying energy sources, implementing an independent supplier system, and restructuring the electricity sector.

Furthermore, Al-Munifi emphasized that without immediate and comprehensive reforms, Kuwait could experience frequent power outages and incur significant economic costs. By 2030, the country may be forced to import electricity, a scenario that could pose both economic and social risks.

Al-Munifi explains that the energy crisis is intensifying, with the maximum load increasing by about 5% annually. Moreover, the energy shortage is nearly doubling every two years, creating an expanding gap between supply and demand.

Moreover, Al-Munifi added that there are two possible future scenarios for the country’s energy sector. The first scenario, if reforms are implemented, is that the deficit will be addressed by 2028 through independent supplier projects, renewable energy initiatives, and the introduction of energy storage systems.

However, the second scenario, involving delayed reforms, would result in setbacks to power and water desalination projects, leading to daily outages that could last for up to 5 hours or more by 2029. This scenario would also cause a shortage in electricity and water production, along with significant economic losses from factory shutdowns.

Challenges

Al-Munifi says that there are 4 main challenges facing the energy sector in Kuwait that are as follows:

1- Financial cost

Establishing a new power plant in Kuwait requires significant investments, amounting to billions of dinars. For instance, the cost of building a power plant with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts could reach up to 400 million dinars. Additionally, there is an urgent need for approximately 13 additional megawatts of capacity over the next five years to meet the growing demand and address the energy crisis.

The state budget deficit in Kuwait presents a significant challenge for financing the establishment of large-scale water generation and desalination plants. This financial constraint necessitates the adoption of the independent supplier system, a model successfully implemented in other Gulf countries. By utilizing this system, Kuwait can reduce the financial burden on the state.

• There is a huge waste in maintenance costs for the current old and dilapidated stations.

2- Expensive maintenance

Maintenance of old stations costs about 20% more than modern stations due to their lower efficiency.

3- Government routine

The document-based and centralized decision-making cycle disrupts electricity and water projects.

4- Total dependence on gas

95% of energy is produced from unsustainable and expensive gas plants.

Management Crisis

Al-Munifi highlights that Kuwait’s electricity crisis is not merely a technical issue but a management crisis. To address this, he emphasizes the urgent need to implement the Independent Power Provider (IPP) system. This approach would attract investments to build power generation and water desalination plants, relieving the strain on the government budget.

Additionally, Al-Munifi calls for restructuring the electricity sector by establishing an independent institution and regulatory body to ensure greater transparency and efficiency. He also advocates for the swift execution of solar energy projects under the IPP system, with the goal of generating 5,000 megawatts of solar energy by 2029.

Furthermore, improving energy efficiency, diversifying energy sources, and implementing smart grids and automated station operation systems (AGC) are essential steps in addressing the growing energy challenges Kuwait faces.

Direct Effects of Energy Shortage

1. Relying on purchasing energy from the Gulf countries (especially during peak times).
2. Scheduled power outages, which threaten vital services and the economy.
3. Lack of a strategic reserve, which increases the risk of random outages.
4. The failure of rationalization measures to reduce consumption, in light of the almost complete reliance on air conditioning during the summer, which cannot be dispensed with during the afternoon and high temperatures.
5. The crisis may hinder urban expansion and new cities, due to the lack of stable electricity supplies.
6. Delaying or cancelling development projects, such as the metro, railways, economic zone, etc.
7. The negative impact on attracting foreign direct investment, as companies depends on the availability of reliable energy to operate their factories and offices.

Causes of Energy Deficiency

First: Delay in updating the infrastructure

No new stations have been built since more than 10 years, putting increased pressure on old stations.

Second: The failure of current financing models

The public-private partnership system has not succeeded in launching new projects quickly enough to keep up with the growing demand, as no power plant project has been contracted for 10 years.

Third: The end of the operational life of some current stations

Some of the current power plants have been in operation for more than 30 years, making them less efficient and more prone to breakdowns. They also consume large amounts of fuel and produce high gas emissions compared to modern generators.

Fourth: Increased demand for energy

The demand for energy increases by 4% – 5% annually, as a result of the increase in population (estimated at 2.5% annually), rising temperatures, in addition to the increased use of air conditioners and electrical appliances in the modern lifestyle.

Solutions to Avoid Energy Shortages

Al-Munifi stresses the need for the government to adopt a set of solutions to avoid an energy crisis in the future, most notably:

1-Implementing the Independent Energy Supplier System:

This system allows investors or developers to build, operate, and maintain modern power generation and water production stations at their own expense for a period of 25 years. The state will not bear any of the expenses or risks involved. Instead, the energy produced will be purchased at a competitive price, offering a sustainable and efficient solution to the country’s energy challenges.

2- Restructuring the sector

First: Separation of roles and specializations.

• The Ministry: Focuses on policies and strategic planning.
• The institution: implementing state policies, developing the sector, and supervising companies.
• Subsidiaries: undertake operation and maintenance.
• Regulatory body: monitors quality and prices, and protects the consumer (as in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and rest of the Gulf countries and the world).

Second: Benefits of Restructuring

• Reduce bureaucracy, improve transparency, and enhance competition.
• Reducing costs for the state, increasing efficiency and productivity, and improving the quality of service.
• Sustainability of electricity and water provision through long-term strategic planning.

3- Application of renewable energy

Solar energy: Kuwait has high solar radiation (2,200 kWh/m² per year) which achieves high electrical energy production from photovoltaic panels.

4- Regional integration

Building joint power plants with the Gulf countries to support the growing demand, and support energy exchange and Gulf connectivity.

5- Improve energy efficiency

First: Application of energy storage systems.
Second: Using artificial intelligence to manage the electrical system.

Source: Al Qabas