The International Monetary Fund has predicted the GDP of five Middle Eastern oil-exporting countries, including three Gulf states, to decline this year due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and joint military operations between the United States and the Israeli occupation on one side and Iran on the other.
The IMF said in its periodic Regional Economic Outlook report for April that military operations and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz from the day war erupted in the Middle East on Feb 28, 2026, have caused a “sharp decline in oil and gas production” in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq.
The IMF predicted that “the GDP of five of the eight oil-exporting countries in the region will decline this year, namely Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq and Iran.”
The report, “The War in the Middle East: Economic Repercussions and Policy Challenges,” explained that the military operations in the region since the beginning of March have led to “a major geopolitical shock that threatened serious global repercussions.”
The IMF estimated the losses at “more than 10 million barrels of oil per day and about 500 million cubic meters of natural gas per day.”
The report noted that food consumption constitutes 80 percent of imports in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE, suggesting that water desalination in Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE constitutes about 40 percent of total international water supplies.
The report stated that the outlook “remains fraught with a high degree of uncertainty and depends on the duration and intensity of the war.”
