The head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East has caused a major global economic shock, disrupting about 13% of oil supplies and 20% of gas supplies that were supposed to reach global markets, stressing that the repercussions of the crisis will continue through 2026 even if a ceasefire is reached.
Georgieva explained during an interview with the American “CBS News” that this shock is global and uneven in nature, as its effects vary from country to country, depending on its proximity to the conflict, its dependence on energy imports, and its financial ability to absorb shocks.
She noted that several Asian countries were the most affected, with South Korea resorting to energy rationing, India imposing rationing measures, the Philippines declaring a national energy emergency, and Australia facing fuel shortages.
Georgieva pointed out that the shortage of helium coming from Qatar has affected vital industries such as semiconductors and medical devices, in addition to a decline in fertilizer supplies, which threatens to raise food prices globally.
She said that financial transfers from the Gulf countries to countries such as India and Bangladesh have been affected, as well as the tourism sector, especially in Sri Lanka, where a third of its flights pass through the Gulf region.
Georgieva explained that the United States is less affected by the crisis than other countries, given that it is an energy exporter, but the price increases are reflected in inflation and delay its return to target levels, which constitutes an additional burden on low-income earners and represents something like an indirect “tax” on their incomes.
The fund’s director confirmed that the effects of the crisis have become a reality, noting that 72 energy facilities have been damaged, a third of them severely, which will lead to continued pressure on supplies.
She pointed out that restoring full production capacity to some fields may take between 3 and 5 years, and that refineries shutting down due to supply shortages also require time to restart.
Georgieva stressed that energy prices will not quickly return to their previous levels even if a peace agreement is reached, due to the cumulative effects on supply chains and infrastructure, and predicted that pressure on fuel prices and airfares will continue in the coming period.
Regarding the role of the IMF, Georgieva explained that the Fund focuses on advising countries to avoid imposing restrictions on trade in petroleum products, due to the negative effects this has on global prices.
It also recommended providing targeted and temporary financial support to the most affected groups, given the limited fiscal space and high levels of global debt.
Despite the challenges, Georgieva stressed that the global economy has shown remarkable resilience, thanks to the role of the private sector, improved economic fundamentals in many countries, and technological innovation.
However, it noted that previous forecasts of improved global growth in 2026 could be reduced, depending on the duration of the conflict and the speed of production recovery.
She stressed that the dollar still retains its position as a major reserve currency, with assets denominated in it representing about 75% of global financial assets, despite the growing trend towards diversifying reserves.
Georgieva stressed that there are no winners in trade wars, calling for a reduction in tensions between the United States and China.
In a related context, Georgieva warned of the increasing effects of artificial intelligence on the labor market, noting that one in ten jobs in the United States requires new skills, with middle-skill jobs declining, which could lead to a widening of the inequality gap.
She expressed concern about cyber risks that could threaten global financial stability, calling for enhanced international cooperation and the development of effective regulatory frameworks.
She stressed that the world is facing turbulent waters, emphasizing that international cooperation and strengthening the role of multilateral institutions are essential elements for maintaining global economic stability in the face of increasing challenges.
