- The effects are already visible in Asia, where carriers such as Cathay Pacific, Air New Zealand, and AirAsia X have begun cutting routes and adjusting pricing strategies.
- With jet fuel becoming scarcer and more expensive, traders are prioritizing buyers willing to pay premium rates, intensifying competition across regions.
The global aviation sector is entering a period of severe turbulence as jet fuel shortages, driven by the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, begin to disrupt airline operations and push costs sharply higher.
Germany’s flagship carrier, Lufthansa, has announced the cancellation of 20,000 flights scheduled between May and October, in a decisive move to conserve fuel amid tightening supplies. The airline said the reduction in short-haul operations would save approximately 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel, the cost of which has doubled since the outbreak of the Iran conflict.
The ripple effects are already being felt across the industry. KLM has canceled 160 flights for the coming month, while airlines across Europe and the Asia-Pacific region are raising ticket prices and preparing for further disruptions as the peak summer travel season approaches, dw.com reports.
At the heart of the crisis is a sharp contraction in jet fuel availability. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, warned that Europe may have as little as six weeks of jet fuel supply remaining. Echoing these concerns, Dan Jørgensen said the situation is rapidly shifting from a price-driven crisis to a full-scale supply emergency.
European authorities are scrambling to respond. Member states are exploring mechanisms to share available jet fuel stocks to sustain essential air travel, reflecting growing concerns over the bloc’s vulnerability to supply shocks.
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly disrupted global oil and gas flows, with Europe’s aviation sector particularly exposed due to its reliance on Middle Eastern kerosene imports. Although the European Union produces between 60% and 70% of its jet fuel, the remaining 30% to 40% is imported, with around half of those imports passing through the strategic waterway.
Despite the alarming warnings, some officials have offered a more optimistic outlook. The Dutch government estimates that the European Union has sufficient kerosene reserves for at least five months, supported by the Netherlands’ extensive refining capacity, which plays a key role in processing crude into jet fuel.
However, analysts caution against complacency. Rico Luman, a senior transport economist at ING, described the situation as a “serious warning” and said the six-week supply estimate could prove accurate if disruptions persist. He stressed that fuel-sharing mechanisms among European hubs may soon become necessary.
In response, EU transport ministers convened urgent talks to coordinate contingency plans. Apostolos Tzitzikostas warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be “catastrophic” not only for Europe but for the global economy.
The European Commission is preparing a package of emergency measures, including collective fuel management and potential redistribution across member states.
Authorities are also considering increasing jet fuel imports from the United States to ease supply constraints. Officials have indicated a willingness to introduce greater flexibility for airlines if the crisis persists.
The situation has exposed deep structural vulnerabilities within the aviation industry. A report by the International Air Transport Association previously warned that Europe’s reliance on imported jet fuel has weakened its supply resilience, urging greater adoption of sustainable aviation fuels derived from alternative sources.
Even if supplies do not run out entirely, the economic impact is expected to intensify. Rising fuel costs are already translating into higher ticket prices, with airlines warning passengers of further increases. While some carriers have hedged fuel prices to mitigate volatility, others have reduced such strategies in recent years, leaving them more exposed to sudden market shocks.
Experts say the only viable short-term solution, if the Strait remains closed, is a reduction in fuel consumption. This is likely to translate into further flight cancellations and continued fare increases as airlines compete for limited supplies in an increasingly strained global market.
The effects are already visible in Asia, where carriers such as Cathay Pacific, Air New Zealand, and AirAsia X have begun cutting routes and adjusting pricing strategies. With jet fuel becoming scarcer and more expensive, traders are prioritizing buyers willing to pay premium rates, intensifying competition across regions.
Beyond immediate operational challenges, the crisis threatens to undermine consumer confidence in the aviation sector. Industry experts warn that the situation highlights the fragility of an industry heavily dependent on geopolitical stability, open airspace, and affordable fuel, conditions that are now increasingly uncertain.
