The world’s eyes are on the Scottish city of Glasgow, United Kingdom, where global leaders, delegates and representatives from around the world are gathered for the 26th iteration of the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26). The event is seen as a climactic opportunity for the world to implement transformational shifts in climate policies and actions, and commit to achieving the goal of limiting global warming to below 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels.
To realize this ambitious goal the world will have to collectively halve global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 and reach ‘net-zero’ emissions by 2050. The importance of COP26 cannot be overemphasized; decisions taken, or not taken at this gathering will have far-reaching consequences for the planet and its people. It could well mean the difference between a livable planet for all, or a planet barely livable on, in the future.
So what has COP26 got to do with caring for polar bears in Kuwait? The rhetorical question underlines the indifference of many people to the potentially existential threat that global warming and climate change poses to Kuwait. An arid land lying at sea-level, Kuwait is particularly susceptible to the vagaries that climate change could bring to the environment. Ironic as it may seem, Kuwait is also a leading emitter of GHGs that lead to global warming and cause climate change.
Kuwait is also a major producer and exporter of fossil fuels, the combustion of which is the largest source of GHG emissions in the world. In what could be construed as a harbinger of times to come, Kuwait recorded the highest temperature in the world this year, registering 53.2°C in Nuwaiseeb to the south of Kuwait City on 22 June, 2021. Record high temperatures have increasingly become the norm in Kuwait in recent years.
Recurring scorching temperatures, increase in number and intensity of dust storms, fall in precipitation and depleting groundwater supplies are only the more tangible aspects of global warming that people are aware of. A less perceptible indirect influence of global warming that could probably have a more devastating impact on Kuwait in future is the predicted rise in sea level. Even a small increase in sea level would put at stake the lives and livelihood of people, nearly all of whom live along the coastline in this sea-level country.
Kuwait is also wedged in the unenviable position of having to reduce its GHG emissions to meet global goals, while having to confront the economic consequences of a fall in fossil-fuel demand as the world increases efforts to move to zero-carbon emission targets. The government acknowledges that the country is vulnerable to the impact of climate change and to the economic and social repercussions arising from climate change. The authorities have also committed to ‘harmonize the country’s economic growth with a low-carbon, climate-resilient development’.
Despite the latent impact of economic, social and ecological consequences of climate change to their lives, the nonchalance of many people in Kuwait to the potential cataclysm in future is unbelievable. In a recent blog report from the Middle East Center of the London School of Economics (LSE) titled ‘Who cares about the polar bear in Kuwait’, the authors Deen Shariff Sharp, Abrar Alshammari and Kanwal Hameed, highlight this anomaly of indifference in the face of an existential threat.
The report notes that during campaigning for the recent National Assembly elections that were held in December 2020, none of the candidates addressed issues related to impact of climate change, or tackled other environmental topics facing the country. When asked about this, one candidate replied that it was not a topic that Kuwait’s electorate found important or were substantively knowledgeable about. He added, “I could go to a diwaniyya and ask the gathering, ‘what do you think about global warming, and they would say who cares about the polar bear”.
But if global climate change continues unbridled, Kuwait will have to contend with more than just caring for polar bears, as reports submitted by various climate studies ahead of COP26 attest. The two-week long climate conference, which is being held at the iconic Scottish Event Campus (SEC) in Glasgow from 31 October to 12 November, has been labeled as a defining moment for global climate action. Besides world leaders, tens of thousands of national negotiators, representatives of science and environment groups, businesses, climate activists, members of civil society organizations, observers, and media representatives, have converged on Glasgow. Heads of state, presidents and prime ministers are also attending a high-level segment of the conference, the ‘World Leaders’ Summit’, on 1–2 November.
Co-hosted by the United Kingdom and Italy, COP26 will be the first time that the Conference of Parties (COP) — a UN term for countries and regions that have signed on to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) — will submit and commit to enhanced Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC).
Following the landmark COP21 held in France in 2015, signatories to the Paris Agreement submitted NDC pledges aimed at limiting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. They also agreed to work towards keeping global warming well below 2º C, and aiming for 1.5º C, above pre-industrial levels, and to ratchet up ambition to mitigate climate change through committing to enhanced NDCs every five years.
The Glasgow gathering of COP26 is the first time that the five-year enhanced NDCs are being submitted. Unfortunately, the enhanced NDC submitted by Kuwait on 12 October 2021 does not go far enough to make any meaningful dent in mitigating the country’s relatively high ecological footprint, or in implementing realistic adaptations to climate change. In its latest NDC, Kuwait noted that based on its national economic circumstances, ‘the State of Kuwait seeks to avoid emission of greenhouse gases equivalent to 7.4 percent of its total future emission in 2035 through its national efforts.
Kuwait also stated that it hopes financial, technical and technological support will be provided through mechanisms of the [UNFCCC] convention, in particular, in market and non-market mechanisms. In addition, the country sought a cooperative approach to ensure the sustainability of its future projects [designed to reduce emissions] and to achieve greater benefit for emission reduction to implement future contributions.
Among the projects that Kuwait plans to undertake to reduce GHG emissions in the years ahead is attaining 70 percent of energy production from gas and remaining 30 percent from fossil fuels by 2022; producing 240MW of combined cycle renewable power by 2024; and carbon reuse by employing carbon capture and storage technologies by 2022. Together these upcoming projects are expected to reduce around 4.2 million tons of GHG emissions, with a total reduction of around 142 million tons by 2035, which represents a reduction of 7.4 percent.
Timely submissions of climate change related ambitions are only one part of the story, ensuring they are sufficient to achieve meaningful and realistic goals is the more challenging part. According to the latest report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), by mid-October, 148 of the 194 COP signatories had submitted their updated NDCs. A tally of their updated submissions indicate that the world is on a trajectory to warm 2.7º C by 2100, and that chances of crossing the global warming level of 1.5°C could very well happen in the next few decades.
The UNEP report on the expected gap in 2030 for the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets of the Paris Agreement shows that before the Paris Agreement, GHG emissions were on track to reach nearly 60 gigatons CO2-equivalent by 2030 — more than double the 25 gigaton emission that scientists agree is critical to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C. The first round of NDCs cut around 10 percent off that gap, and preliminary estimates are that the current round of NDCs are on track to deliver another 10 percent.
Pledges from countries committing to further reduce their emissions so far add up to a total reduction of 3.6 gigatons CO2-equivalent by 2030. To state what is quite obvious, this is too little. If we are to have a realistic chance of limiting global warming to the 1.5 degree C level, we will have to collectively commit to implementing policies and actions that deliver 7.6 percent emission reduction every year between 2020 and 2030, noted UNEP. But, even the most ambitious national climate action plans submitted are far short of this 7.6 percent reduction.
The report noted that ten years ago, if countries had acted on warnings by scientists and the science behind the warning, governments would have needed to reduce emissions only by 3.3 percent each year. And, if we do not take decisive action now, in less than four years time, by 2025 the emission cuts needed would be 15.5 percent each year. The increasingly steep emission reductions have placed us on the brink, it may soon be impossible to achieve the 1.5°C goal, warned UNEP.
However, it is not all a bleak scenario. Though the emission cuts may look too ambitious, they are achievable with collective action and support from those with the resources. We cannot afford to sit aside and take no action, for ourselves, for the planet and for future generations, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN entity responsible for advancing knowledge on human-induced climate change, noted.
In the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report, published in August this year, the IPCC — while painting a stark picture that leaves no room for ambiguity on the fact the climate is changing; and it is changing because of human activity — also said that there were several steps we could take now to avoid a catastrophic future.
Among the concrete and actionable measures and commitments that need to be made at COP26, as recommended by IPCC are to include the most vulnerable groups — rural dwellers and indigenous peoples — in the decision-making process; invest in nature-based solutions that can promote sustainable agriculture, food production and decent livelihoods, as well as scale up funding to help developing countries adapt. The report also suggests realigning our policies and priorities so as to focus global resources, attention, and policymaking on climate adaptation, not just mitigation. The report noted that at present for every US$18 spent on mitigation, only $1 goes towards adaptation measures.
In Kuwait, the focus has generally been on mitigation, not adaptation or on building climate resilience. Often there seems to be confusion and conflation within Kuwaiti society between climate change and other environmental issues such as littering, said authors of the LSE blog report cited earlier, which was a prelude to their newly published report, The Quiet Emergency: Experiences and Understandings of Climate Change in Kuwait.
The report notes that though there are several civil society organizations and volunteer groups engaged in mitigating environmental issues in Kuwait, their focus is often not specifically on adaptation or resilience strategies. Despite there being very little scientific backing for direct and explicit links between environmental degradation and climate change, many groups in Kuwait tend to focus on issues such as littering; availability of drinking water; recycling; and pollution, and ‘beach clean-ups, which are one of the most popular and visible activities through which the inhabitants of Kuwait engage with the environment’, noted the authors.
The report nevertheless ends on a hopeful tone, pointing out that there is a notable generational divide in response to climate issues. The younger generation appear to be deeply concerned about climate change and say that it would negatively impact their future to a far greater extent than their elders. Previous generation did not take the issue as seriously as we do, said many youngsters. Apparently, the generation of the future do in fact ‘care about the polar bear’, noted the report.
[The newly published report, The Quiet Emergency: Experiences and Understandings of Climate Change in Kuwait, examines how Kuwaitis (both citizens and non-citizens) are grappling with the multiple challenges that climate change brings to the country. The policy paper will be officially launched at a Kuwait Programme webinar on Wednesday 4 November from 13.00 – 14.30 GMT hosted by Senior Environmental Specialist Samia Alduaij and featuring all three authors.] We wish them well.
