Researchers from Kuwait Diabetes Institute and Kuwait University (KU) developed a simulation designed to study spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Kuwait which showed peak of the virus would be mid-May, the DDI Director General said Tuesday.
Dr. Qais Al-Duwairi said the simulation, called Predictive mathematical model SARS COV II, was based on the SEIR model (Susceptible – Exposed – Infectious – Recovered) with a few modifications to cope with the situation in Kuwait.
The simulation, said Al-Duwairi, proved measures adopted by the government of Kuwait to contain the virus since day one were correct.
These measures, explained Al-Duwairi, included closure of schools, restaurants and shopping malls, as well as enforcing mandatory and self-quarantines “which effectively contributed to isolation of infected people who came from abroad.”
He said the simulation showed that spread of coronavirus would continue its upward trend until mid-May and the curve would begin descending. This simulation, added Al-Duwairi, would contribute to initial assessment of any containment strategy.
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