Reaven D’Souza
Managing Editor
A communiqué issued last week by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) ministers in charge of climate affairs, reiterated the GCC commitment to principles and provisions of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and to the 2015 Paris Agreement on Climate Change.
Issued on the sidelines of the Middle East and North Africa Climate Week 2023 (MENA CW 2023) that was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, from 8–12 October, the communiqué called for the scaling up of global efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. But the statement also stressed the need to adopt a gradual and practical approach to realize the Agreement’s targets in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions, taking into account the national conditions in each country and the availability of technological solutions.
The statement also encouraged efforts aimed to triple the production of renewable energy globally by 2030, through goals and policies, as well as by leveraging other low- and zero-emission technologies, in line with national conditions. The ministers also noted that the international community should avoid excluding major energy sources, or neglecting to invest in them, which could lead to challenges in energy markets and have an unequal impact, especially on developing countries. In this regard, they called for adopting a ‘balanced approach’ to boost global economic growth closely linked to energy security and availability. This, the ministers said, could be achieved through taking advantage of various energy sources and working to achieve transition to clean energy in a practical, gradual, and fair manner.
In his address at the event, Kuwait’s Minister of Oil and Minister of State for Economic Affairs and Investment Dr. Saad AlBarrak said that a week dedicated to climate change in the MENA region is imperative given the magnitude of the matter. He hailed the initiative as beneficial to regional climate change goals, and noted that the gathering allowed participants a chance to “sort out their priorities” in the run up to COP28.
The UN climate change conference COP28, scheduled to be held in the United Arab Emirates from 30 November to 12 December, provides Kuwait with a singular opportunity to articulate more ambitious climate change strategies, and implement bold initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate potential devastating temperature increases.
The vanilla responses and policies Kuwait has previously propounded to tackle climate change will no longer suffice. This is especially so, considering that Kuwait is among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the vagaries of climate aberrations, and can no longer afford to ignore its looming repercussions. Located at the northern tip of the Arabian Gulf in a largely arid region, Kuwait is buffeted by extreme weather patterns and climatic conditions for much of the year.
Scorching heat in summer, biting cold in winter, and heavy winds that generate frequent dust storms, scant annual rainfall, no natural surface water source, and rapidly depleting aquifers, are just indicative of the country’s harsh environment, Negligible arable land and limited agriculture also makes the country highly vulnerable to food insecurity. The country is also ranked among the top-five ‘extremely water-stressed’ countries in the world.
Climate change is expected to exacerbate all of the ecological challenges, and create new ones, such as sea level rise. Numerous studies by local and international experts and institutions have identified several direct fallouts as a result of unmitigated climate change in Kuwait. Among others, these include higher temperatures, decreased precipitation, and an increase in sea level:
Kuwait is already one of the hottest countries in the world, with average summer temperatures regularly exceeding 40 degrees Celsius. Climate change is expected to make Kuwait even hotter, with average temperatures projected to increase by 5.5°C by the end of the century. The rise in temperature could lead to more frequent and intense heat waves and dust storms that could make living, and working outdoors intolerable.
Temperature rise could also have a significant impact on the environment and human health, particularly for vulnerable groups such as newborns, the elderly and those with chronic health conditions. A recent study by researchers at Kuwait University found that rising temperatures could have a significant negative impact on public health and could lead to a 5–11 percent hike in heat-related deaths.
In addition, the meager annual rainfall in the country is predicted to further decrease under worsening climate conditions. Studies show that average annual rainfall, which is typically around 112 millimeters (mm) per year, could fall by 25–30 percent by the turn of the century. This drop in annual precipitation could exacerbate existing water scarcity and increase aridity of soil, making even the limited arable land unsuitable for cultivation.
Studies also show that the projected rise in sea level of 0.5–1 meter due to climate change could inundate a large portion of the coastline. With most of the urban areas located in, or close to the coast, any sea level rise could have devastating effects on the population, infrastructure, and on utility supplies. Power stations and desalination plants that provide nearly all of the country’s potable water are all located at sea level.
Aware of the challenges posed by climate change, the government has been taking several steps to mitigate and adapt to climate repercussions. Kuwait has issued a National Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2019-2030, that outlines over 50 short-medium- and long-term initiatives aimed at mitigating and adapting to climate change. On the GHG emission front, the country has set a target of meeting 15 percent of its energy needs from renewable sources by 2030, and reducing the equivalent of 7.4 percent of its total carbon dioxide emissions by 2035.
Other sustainability plans include achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 in the oil and gas sector, and in the rest of the sectors by 2060. While these proactive measures are welcome, Kuwait clearly needs to do more. As a major oil producer and with an economy overwhelmingly dominated by fossil fuel revenues, the country needs to further reduce its GHG emissions and consumption patterns, as well as actively pursue renewable energy sources, and transition to a more sustainable economy.
Challenges posed by harsh weather and geographic conditions are not limited to Kuwait, other GCC countries are also confronted by similar challenges and equally endangered by long-term climatic aberrations. Given the vulnerability of the Gulf states to climate change, one would have expected the communiqué issued by the GCC ministers’ at MENA CW2023 to recommend more robust measures and specific solutions to mitigate climate change impacts on the region.
In the end, the paradoxical elements in the GCC communiqué — ‘scaling up efforts to limit global temperature rises’, while stressing a gradual approach to reducing GHG emissions; or, ‘tripling renewable energy production’, while calling for continued investment in fossil fuels — were a reflection of the prevailing ambivalence among major oil and gas producing countries and companies, on tackling climate change while clinging on to fossil fuels.
However, it would be amiss on our part not to acknowledge that GCC states have undertaken several significant steps and launched initiatives aimed at mitigating and adapting to climate change. In recent years there has been an increased momentum in such regional initiatives, including the Middle East Green Initiative launched by Saudi Arabia that aims to plant 40 billion trees across the region and reduce carbon emissions by 60 percent with the help of clean hydrocarbon technologies.
Similarly, the United Arab Emirates, which was the first in the MENA region to announce its strategic initiative to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, is also among the few countries launching initiatives aimed at tackling global water scarcity, a crisis that is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Last month, the country’s foreign ministry published a detailed discussion paper titled, ‘Ripple Effect Water Scarcity – The Hidden Threat to Global Security and Prosperity’.
In his foreword to the discussion paper, the UAE Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, noted that while the MENA region continues to rank among the most water-stressed nations on earth, the problem of water scarcity is now spreading to many other parts of the world, accelerated by factors including climate change, population growth and continued economic development.
He added that the UAE intends to launch a multifaceted initiative to confront the issue of global water scarcity, including launching a non-profit initiative “dedicated to accelerating the development, testing and deployment of transformative solutions to address global water scarcity”. The initiative also aims to leverage the combined capabilities of UAE’s academic institutions, government agencies and water-related industries to accelerate innovation, and facilitate deployment of new technologies that could address water scarcity, sustainably and affordably.
In addition, the country would introduce domestic policies to improve water sustainability through water conservation initiatives, and accelerate implementation of the UAE Water Security Strategy 2036. Most importantly, the UAE foreign minister’s foreword noted that the discussion paper represented an open invitation to other members of the international community to work with the UAE to help shape and advance concerted global efforts to address water scarcity.
Hydrocarbon rich countries are undoubtedly keen to protect their fossil fuel infrastructure and in-ground assets, and reluctant to diversify their prevailing economic model, or encourage the transition of the local labor market to cleaner renewable energy sources or technologies. A major reason for this resistance to change, stems from the fact that oil and gas income forms the main revenue source for many of these states.
An interesting analogous situation in the past was when the first automobiles came on the scene more than a century ago. Back then, while smart horse-and-carriage operators transitioned to the new travel mode, many others chose to cling on to their horses. They argued that the new four-wheeled contraption was just a fad that would fade in a short while, while their horse carriages would still be around. In a way they were right, some horse carriages are still around, but they are now largely confined to amusement parks.
While the disinclination among fossil-fuel states to change is understandable, it is not condonable, especially considering the significant cost this intransigence poses to global sustainability and survival. When people and the planet are faced by the existential threat of climate change, tenaciously holding on to fossil fuel economies is egregious, unethical and also unsustainable in the long run. As Kuwait’s oil minister so succinctly put it, there is certainly a need for the GCC states to ‘sort out priorities’.
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