Kuwait’s GDP expected to shrink by 3.3% in 2024 amid oil sector decline

Kuwait’s gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to decline by 3.3% in 2024—equivalent to KWD 1.663 billion—bringing the total to KWD 49.14 billion, down from KWD 50.8 billion in 2023.

The contraction is largely attributed to falling oil prices, which significantly impacted the oil sector’s contribution to the economy, despite continued growth in the non-oil sector, reports Al-Rai daily.

Non-Oil Sector Expands

Economic activity data at current prices shows that non-oil GDP rose by 3.56%, or KWD 957.5 million, to reach KWD 27.813 billion in 2024, up from KWD 26.856 billion in 2023.

In contrast, oil GDP declined by 10.9%, or KWD 2.62 billion, settling at KWD 21.326 billion, compared to KWD 23.946 billion last year.

As a result, the non-oil sector’s share of total GDP increased from 52.86% in 2023 to 56.6% in 2024, while the oil sector’s share dropped from 47.1% to 43.4%.

Sector Performance at Current Prices

• Oil and gas extraction and related services: KWD 21.326 billion (43.4% of GDP)
• Public administration, defense, and social security: KWD 6.017 billion (12.24%)
• Financial intermediation and insurance: KWD 4.543 billion (9.24%)
• Manufacturing, real estate, and commercial projects: Each at KWD 3.93 billion (8%)
• Wholesale and retail trade: KWD 2.151 billion (4.37%)
• Health and social work: KWD 2.03 billion (4.13%)
• Communications: KWD 1.77 billion (3.6%)
• Hotels and restaurants: KWD 1.56 billion (3.17%)
• Electricity, gas, and water: KWD 1.168 billion (2.37%)

Community and social services: KWD 1.02 billion (2.07%)

GDP at Constant Prices Also Declines

At constant prices, Kuwait’s GDP is expected to decrease by 2.56% in 2024 to KWD 40.334 billion, down from KWD 41.394 billion in 2023.

The oil sector’s real added value fell by 6.9%, or KWD 1.429 billion, to KWD 19.306 billion. Meanwhile, the non-oil sector grew by 1.8%, or KWD 370.05 million, reaching KWD 21.027 billion.

This shift slightly altered the GDP composition at constant prices. The oil sector’s share dropped to 47.86% from 49.9% in 2023, while the non-oil sector’s share rose to 52.13% from 50.09%.

Sector Performance at Constant Prices

• Oil and gas extraction and related services: KWD 19.3 billion (47.86%)
• Public administration, defense, and social security: KWD 5.642 billion (14%)
• Financial intermediation and insurance: KWD 3.59 billion (8.9%)
• Manufacturing: KWD 3.225 billion (8%)
• Real estate, rental, and commercial projects: KWD 3.593 billion (7.2%)
• Education: KWD 2.15 billion (5.34%)
• Electricity, gas, and water: KWD 1.706 billion (4.22%)
• Wholesale and retail trade: KWD 1.467 billion (3.6%)
• Communications: KWD 1.458 billion (3.6%)
• Health and social work: KWD 1.322 billion (3.27%)
• Community and social services: KWD 891.3 million (2.2%)