Fitch predicts fiscal surpluses for Kuwait in 2025 amid strong MENA economic growth
Fitch Ratings highlighted in a recent report that ongoing economic reforms and solid financial conditions across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are helping sovereigns offset the negative effects of regional conflicts and lower oil price expectations.
The agency noted that oil-producing countries have experienced strong economic growth, driven by rising oil production and non-oil growth supported by government investments. Egypt, for instance, recorded a recovery in domestic demand, while Morocco benefited from robust investment activity and favorable weather conditions, reports Al-Rai daily.
Fitch emphasized that recent geopolitical conflicts have not affected sovereign credit ratings in the region, largely because they are geographically contained within unrated countries. However, the agency warned that any future escalation could pose significant challenges and potentially trigger rating downgrades.
In the energy market, oil prices have remained surprisingly stable despite geopolitical tensions, supported by ample spare production capacity from the OPEC+ alliance. Based on a projected oil price of $70 per barrel in 2025, Fitch expects most Gulf countries, including Kuwait, to record fiscal surpluses.
The report concluded that the MENA region’s average credit rating has slightly improved over the past year, marking the longest period without a sovereign rating downgrade since early 2015, despite challenges from low oil prices and regional conflicts.
