Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has stated that the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs will have no direct effect on the credit ratings of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The agency clarified that exports from the GCC to the U.S. remain limited and are largely concentrated in energy-related products — a sector that is exempt from the new tariffs.
However, Fitch warned of potential indirect consequences for the region, particularly through weakened global demand that could place downward pressure on oil prices — the primary source of government revenue across GCC states.
Fitch estimates that for every $10 drop in oil prices from its baseline forecast of $70 per barrel in 2025, fiscal revenues could decline by as much as:
• 1.5% of GDP in the UAE, and
• 4.6% of GDP in Kuwait.
The agency noted that GCC countries vary in vulnerability to oil price shocks, with Bahrain identified as the most exposed.
