US President Donald Trump has predicted that India will soon scale back its reliance on Russian oil — and that China will follow — signaling a potential shift that could shake global energy markets and strain Asia’s top economies.
The comments come as Washington threatens secondary sanctions on nations continuing to buy Russian crude, a key source of funding for Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
While Trump claimed Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi assured him of reduced Russian oil imports, New Delhi reiterated that its priority remains protecting consumers amid volatile energy markets.
Beijing pushed back even more forcefully, calling its Russian oil imports “legitimate” and rejecting what it described as US “unilateral bullying.”
Both India and China have become Russia’s largest oil buyers, replacing the European Union since 2022.
Trump’s new sanctions and tariffs — including an additional 25% levy on Indian imports — have already rattled financial markets.
Analysts warn that tighter sanctions could send oil prices soaring, similar to the shock of 2022, when Western restrictions drove global prices above $100 per barrel.
With Russia exporting roughly five million barrels a day, any disruption could trigger renewed inflation across major economies.
Experts say India, which saved about $33 billion from discounted Russian crude between 2022 and 2024, faces mounting pressure to diversify its supplies.
Still, Indian refiners continue to buy heavily, processing Russian oil into diesel and jet fuel for export to Europe and Asia.
For China, its economic scale and dominance in critical minerals give it leverage that India lacks, allowing Beijing to resist Trump’s pressure more effectively.
Meanwhile, India’s oil “jackpot” from deep Russian discounts has faded — the price gap has narrowed to about $5 per barrel, down from as much as $20 in 2022.
Energy experts believe New Delhi may gradually trim its Russian oil imports but will stop short of cutting them entirely. As analyst Sumit Ritolia told DW, “India might reduce, but we’re not going down to zero anytime soon.”
Trump’s escalating sanctions threat now risks redrawing the global oil map — potentially igniting a fresh energy and inflation storm that could hit both East and West alike.
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