Fitch Ratings’ head of sovereign ratings for the Middle East and Africa, Paul Gamble, forecast that Brent crude oil prices will average around $63 per barrel in 2026. This outlook reflects a market characterized by ample supply and relatively subdued demand.
According to Gamble, this price level is sufficient for several Gulf nations, including Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, to record fiscal surpluses.
In contrast, it approximates the breakeven threshold for Oman. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, by contrast, face higher breakeven requirements, with Saudi Arabia expected to reach around $88 per barrel—a reduction from 2025 levels thanks to financial reforms and increased domestic production, reports Al-Rai daily.
Gamble emphasized that, despite ongoing geopolitical risks, the Gulf countries are likely to achieve positive economic growth in 2026. He cited strong momentum in non-oil sectors and continued implementation of structural economic reforms as key drivers.
“The regional outlook is neutral overall,” he noted, balancing stable oil prices, solid economic growth, and sustained production. He highlighted the progress made by Gulf states in diversifying their economies, improving the business environment, and strengthening private sector participation.
Specifically, Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector now accounts for over half of the kingdom’s GDP, signaling tangible success in diversification efforts.
Governments across the region are expected to maintain spending programs and continue structural reforms to support economic resilience and sustainable growth.
