Global energy markets surged sharply as trading resumed Monday following the weekend holiday, driven by escalating regional tensions and fears of major disruptions to global supply chains.
Brent crude jumped 13 percent to $82.37 per barrel — its highest level since January 2025 — before trimming gains to trade up $5.41, or 7.4 percent, at $78.28 amid growing concerns over energy flows from the Gulf.
European natural gas prices recorded an even steeper rise, with benchmark futures soaring nearly 50 percent after QatarEnergy halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, reports Al-Rai daily.
The spike marked the largest increase since August 2023 and followed a near-complete disruption of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Asian economies, which depend heavily on Middle Eastern LNG imports, are expected to face intensified competition for alternative energy supplies, pushing global prices higher, including in Europe.
Gold also climbed nearly 2 percent to $5,366 in spot trading, extending a remarkable 64 percent rally since the start of 2025, supported by strong central bank purchases, inflows into exchange-traded funds, and expectations of looser US monetary policy.
Growth and Inflation Outlook
JPMorgan Chase lowered its forecast for non-oil GDP growth in Gulf countries this year by 0.3 percentage points, warning that higher oil prices could lead to upward revisions in short-term inflation expectations.
Kuwait Moves to Stabilize Local Markets
Domestically, swift government measures helped maintain market stability. The Minister of Commerce and Industry imposed price ceilings on all food commodities and banned their export abroad to protect consumers and prevent shortages.
The ministry confirmed that prices prevailing before February 28 will serve as the maximum allowable levels, with violators facing legal penalties. The decision will remain in effect for one month starting March 1, alongside intensified market monitoring.
Faisal Al-Ansari, Director of the Commercial Control Department, said markets remain stable with sufficient stockpiles and uninterrupted availability of essential goods. He warned that any artificial price increases would be referred to the Public Prosecution.
Inspection teams are monitoring supply centers and 71 cooperative societies around the clock through a central operations room, ensuring smooth distribution and preventing panic buying.
Banking Sector Assures Continuity
The Kuwait Banking Association confirmed that banking services continue normally in coordination with the Central Bank of Kuwait. Banks reported strong liquidity levels, with ATMs regularly replenished and digital banking platforms operating uninterrupted to ensure customer access to services.
Oil Outlook and Shipping Disruptions
Analysts at Citibank expect Brent crude to trade between $80 and $90 per barrel in the coming days, potentially easing toward $70 if tensions subside.
Goldman Sachs estimated a real-time geopolitical risk premium of $18 per barrel, which could fall significantly if partial tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume. Wood Mackenzie warned oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel if disruptions persist.
Shipping data showed more than 200 oil and LNG tankers stranded in the Gulf, with at least three vessels damaged amid ongoing attacks that severely disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route handling roughly one-fifth of global oil demand.
Analysts cautioned that prolonged disruption could trigger supply shortages in major importing countries such as China and India, while US gasoline prices could rise above $3 per gallon.
Insurance Costs Surge
Marine insurance costs have surged by about 500 percent since the escalation began, according to maritime consultant Haitham Shaaban.
More than half of the world’s largest marine insurance associations have decided to suspend war-risk coverage for vessels entering Gulf waters starting March 5, a move expected to further reduce shipping activity.
