As the conflict involving the United States and Israel continues, analysts say it remains impossible to predict how the war will unfold — or what Iran’s political future will look like once the fighting ends.
When US and Israeli forces launched large-scale strikes on Iran on February 28, some residents in Tehran were seen celebrating on rooftops despite the destruction caused by the attacks. The reaction reflected deep frustration among segments of the population with the country’s clerical leadership.
The situation changed dramatically after reports emerged that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed in a strike. Even so, the country’s political structure has continued to function, with senior political figure Ali Larijani emerging as a key leader within the system.
Experts say several scenarios could shape Iran’s future once the war ends, dw.com reports.
One possibility resembles what happened in Venezuela earlier this year, when US-backed operations removed leader Nicolas Maduro and installed his deputy, Delcy Rodriguez, as interim president while keeping much of the existing political structure intact.
Donald Trump has suggested that a similar model could apply to Iran — replacing the top leadership while leaving the broader system largely unchanged.
Another scenario could involve internal reform rather than full regime collapse. Analysts say Iran’s Assembly of Experts might appoint a more pragmatic successor to Khamenei, focusing on economic recovery and easing tensions with the United States to reduce sanctions and stabilize the country.
Some observers believe such an approach could help Iran shift toward reconstruction and domestic reform while de-escalating its foreign policy.
A third and more concerning scenario could see the country move in the opposite direction. In this case, Iran’s leadership might rally around a more hardline figure, strengthen conservative ideology, and accelerate efforts to develop nuclear capabilities — pushing the country toward deeper isolation similar to that of North Korea.
Meanwhile, exiled opposition figures are also seeking a role in Iran’s future. Among them is Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last monarch, who has advocated for a democratic transition rather than a return to monarchy.
Although he has attracted support among protesters abroad, analysts say the opposition remains fragmented and lacks a clear path to power.
Security forces will likely play a decisive role in any post-war transition. Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps controls significant military and economic resources, making it a key factor in determining the country’s political direction.
Experts warn that tensions between the Revolutionary Guards and Iran’s conventional army could intensify in the aftermath of the war. Such divisions — combined with ethnic and political rivalries across the country — could even trigger internal conflict if a political vacuum emerges.
With multiple factions competing for influence and no clear successor in sight, analysts say Iran could face a long and uncertain path once the war ends.
