Oil at $60 deepens Kuwait budget deficit outlook for 2025–26
Al-Shall Economic Report indicated that by the end of January 2026 — the tenth month of the 2025–2026 fiscal year — Kuwait’s oil revenues continued to face pressure due to declining crude prices.
The average price of a barrel of Kuwaiti oil in January stood at approximately $60.7, down by $0.5 per barrel (-0.9%) from December’s average of $61.2.
The figure is also $7.3 below the conservative oil price assumption in the state budget, set at $68 per barrel, and nearly $29.8 lower than the estimated budget breakeven price of $90.5 per barrel, according to Ministry of Finance calculations after suspending the 10% deduction for the Future Generations Fund, reports Al-Jarida daily.
For the fiscal year to date, the average price of Kuwaiti crude reached about $67.2 per barrel, which is $12.5 lower (-15.7%) than the average price recorded in the previous fiscal year of $79.7. It is also around $23.3 below the breakeven level required to balance the current budget.
Al-Shall estimates that oil revenues in January alone reached roughly 1.123 billion dinars. Assuming current production and price levels continue — an assumption the report cautions may not hold — total net oil revenues for the full fiscal year could reach around 14.735 billion dinars. This would be about 570.5 million dinars less than the conservative oil revenue estimate in the budget, which stands at 15.305 billion dinars.
When adding projected non-oil revenues of 2.926 billion dinars, total state revenues for the fiscal year would amount to approximately 17.661 billion dinars.
