China has shown notable economic resilience during the first year of US President Donald Trump’s second term, weathering renewed trade tensions while edging toward a cautious stabilization in ties with Washington, analysts say.
Days before Trump marked one year back in the White House, Beijing released a series of economic indicators pointing to steady performance despite mounting pressure from the US-led trade war. China posted economic growth of 5% in 2025, meeting its official target, while recording a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion, according to data released this month.
Analysts attribute the surplus partly to China redirecting exports away from the US toward other global markets, underscoring the continued price competitiveness of Chinese goods. “The Trump administration may have believed it could use economic leverage to force policy changes in Beijing,” said Amanda Hsiao, China studies director at Eurasia Group. “But China has its own leverage that can match Washington’s.”
Trump’s second-term China policy has focused less on ideology and more on economic and technological rivalry, a shift reflected in Washington’s National Security Strategy released in December. Early in his term, Trump rolled out reciprocal tariffs worldwide, quickly reigniting a tit-for-tat trade war with Beijing, dw.com reports.
Tensions peaked in April, when the US imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods. China responded in kind, matching the tariff levels and introducing export controls on rare earth elements. Both sides later stepped back after recognizing the scale of damage to their economies, following trade talks in May that resulted in tariffs being rolled back to around 30%.
“Beijing took a calculated risk by hitting back hard,” Hsiao said, noting that Washington’s subsequent retreat reinforced China’s confidence in its tougher stance. Diao Daming, a professor of international studies at Renmin University of China, said Beijing has emerged from the first year of Trump’s second term with greater confidence and a clearer sense of “mutual checks and balances” in economic relations.
After months of confrontation, the two powers have moved toward a fragile trade truce, even as broader strategic competition continues. High-level diplomacy played a key role in stabilizing relations, with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping holding four phone calls and one in-person meeting in 2025. Their meeting in Busan, South Korea, in October was described by Trump as a success, while Xi cautioned against falling into a cycle of retaliation.
Analysts view the current calm as an interim phase. For Beijing, it provides time to strengthen its position in long-term competition with the US, while Washington uses the breathing space to bolster critical supply chains, particularly for minerals.
Looking ahead to 2026, as many as four Trump–Xi meetings are expected, including Trump’s planned state visit to Beijing in April, a reciprocal visit by Xi to Washington, and possible encounters at the APEC summit in Shenzhen and the G20 meeting in Miami.
While China has yet to confirm Xi’s attendance at all events, analysts remain cautiously optimistic that relative stability will persist through the year.
However, Trump’s unpredictability remains a concern. Recent US actions abroad, including moves in Latin America and renewed focus on Greenland, may embolden Beijing to adopt more assertive behavior elsewhere.
While China is unlikely to alter its core stance on Taiwan, analysts warn that Beijing may feel increasingly confident in applying pressure, believing that major powers can act with fewer constraints from international law.
