Geopolitics rattle energy markets: Kuwait stresses OPEC+ unity after US arrest of Venezuelan President

Recent global geopolitical developments, particularly the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States, have once again underscored the extreme sensitivity of international oil markets to political shocks in major producing countries.

Despite the long-standing challenges facing its oil sector, Venezuela remains a strategically significant player in the global energy equation, holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves.

As a result, any political developments linked to its leadership are closely monitored by energy markets. While experts have largely played down the immediate impact of these events on oil prices, Kuwait’s Minister of Oil, Tariq Al-Roumi, reaffirmed on Sunday Kuwait’s commitment to supporting joint efforts aimed at enhancing global economic recovery and maintaining balance in the oil market.

Kuwaiti oil and energy experts told KUNA on Tuesday that the impact of the US arrest of the Venezuelan president on global oil markets is limited in both the short and medium terms, stressing that the effect is primarily psychological rather than driven by actual supply changes.

They noted that although Venezuela possesses reserves exceeding 300 billion barrels, its current production stands at less than one million barrels per day, accounting for under one percent of total global output.

Oil prices registered only a modest increase in the first trading session following the arrest, with Brent crude closing at $61.76 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $58.32, both up by around one dollar.

US President Donald Trump announced last Saturday that American forces had carried out a “successful” military operation in Venezuelan territory resulting in the arrest of Maduro and his wife, adding that Washington would administer Venezuela until a “smooth and fair transition of power” takes place.

Energy consultant Jamal Al-Gharballi said Venezuela’s production has sharply declined due to sanctions, aging infrastructure, and the absence of investment in oil field development.

He emphasized that Venezuela’s current output does not carry significant weight in global supply and that the cohesion of the OPEC+ alliance strengthens market stability in the face of sudden geopolitical changes.

Al-Gharballi also pointed out that the US ban on Venezuelan oil remains in place, meaning its crude does not contribute meaningfully to immediate global supply, and that raising production to high levels would require time and massive investment.

Energy expert and College of Technological Studies faculty member Dr. Mubarak Al-Hajri said Venezuelan oil would have no tangible impact on global markets due to production complexities and its high density.

He explained that Venezuelan crude is among the heaviest in the world, with an API gravity ranging between 14 and 18, making extraction, processing, and transportation more complicated. He added that heavy oil pricing is closely linked to logistical and supply chain factors, noting that comparisons with Canadian heavy crude overlook key technical differences, as Canadian crude is relatively lighter.

For his part, Chairman of the Kuwaiti Business Council in Dubai Dr. Firas Al-Salem said the arrest of the Venezuelan president and the prospect of regime change could encourage US investment in Venezuela, which could potentially transform it into one of the world’s largest oil producers.

He noted that foreign investment could raise production beyond three million barrels per day in the long term from current levels of around one million barrels per day, helping to ease the heavy debts of Venezuela’s national oil company, which holds exclusive production rights and remains under US sanctions.

However, Al-Salem stressed that any future investment would take several years to materialize due to the need to modernize aging infrastructure and would not have an immediate impact on global oil prices.

He warned that in the long term, the return of a major producer to the market without strong demand growth could exert downward pressure on prices, especially if most Venezuelan output is directed to US refineries in the southern states.

Meanwhile, Minister of Oil Tariq Al-Roumi reiterated Kuwait’s commitment to supporting joint efforts to enhance global economic recovery and maintain balance in the oil market, stressing that cooperation within the OPEC+ alliance remains a cornerstone of energy market stability.

He said his participation in the meeting of the eight countries involved in the voluntary production cut exit agreement within OPEC+ came as part of monthly coordination to monitor market developments, strengthen stability, and ensure supply security.

Al-Roumi praised the decision by the eight countries to maintain production levels in February and March 2026, noting that Kuwait’s oil production currently stands at 2.580 million barrels per day.