What began as a hopeful year for EU–India relations turbulence hit the ties in July when New Delhi was drawn into the EU’s latest sanctions package against Russia.
The move targeted India’s refining of discounted Russian crude — including products sold back to Europe — raising questions over whether a long-awaited free trade deal could survive the political storm.
While the EU’s blacklisting of Indian refinery Nayara Energy has been dismissed by analysts as largely symbolic, Washington’s shock decision to impose tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods is emerging as the real threat to New Delhi’s economic stability — and a possible trigger for a major geopolitical pivot, according to dw.com
Experts say President Trump’s tariff offensive may accelerate India’s drive to diversify away from the US and deepen ties with Europe.
The EU’s measured negotiating style, particularly on agriculture, is seen as more attuned to India’s domestic sensitivities than Washington’s confrontational stance.
If US tariffs force India to scale back Russian oil imports, Moscow could lose a vital revenue stream for its war in Ukraine — a potential win for the EU and Kyiv.
But diplomats warn such a move risks spiking global energy prices, underscoring the delicate balance between economic strategy and geopolitical pressure.
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