{"id":14524,"date":"2019-06-02T14:48:20","date_gmt":"2019-06-02T11:48:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/192.163.207.100\/~timesku1\/news\/?p=14524"},"modified":"2019-06-02T14:48:20","modified_gmt":"2019-06-02T11:48:20","slug":"global-consequences-of-a-sino-american-cold-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timeskuwait.com\/news\/global-consequences-of-a-sino-american-cold-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Consequences of a Sino-American Cold War"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A few years ago, as part of a Western delegation to China, I met President Xi Jinping in Beijing\u2019s Great Hall of the People. When addressing us, Xi argued that China\u2019s rise would be peaceful, and that other countries \u2014 namely, the United States \u2014 need not worry about the \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019, so named for the Greek historian who chronicled how Sparta\u2019s fear of a rising Athens made war between the two inevitable. In his 2017 book <em>Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides\u2019s Trap?<\/em>, Harvard University\u2019s Graham Allison examines 16 earlier rivalries between an emerging and an established power, and finds that 12 of them led to war. No doubt, Xi wanted us to focus on the remaining four.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the mutual awareness of the Thucydides Trap, and the recognition that history is not deterministic, China and the US seem to be falling into it anyway. Though a hot war between the world\u2019s two major powers still seems far-fetched, a cold war is becoming more likely.<\/p>\n<p>The US blames China for the current tensions. Since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001, China has reaped the benefits of the global trading and investment system, while failing to meet its obligations and free riding on its rules. According to the US, China has gained an unfair advantage through intellectual-property theft, forced technology transfers, subsidies for domestic firms, and other instruments of state capitalism. At the same time, its government is becoming increasingly authoritarian, transforming China into an Orwellian surveillance state.<\/p>\n<p>For their part, the Chinese suspect that the US\u2019s real goal is to prevent them from rising any further or projecting legitimate power and influence abroad. In their view, it is only reasonable that the world\u2019s second-largest economy (by GDP) would seek to expand its presence on the world stage. And leaders would argue that their regime has improved the material welfare of 1.4 billion Chinese far more than the West\u2019s gridlocked political systems ever could.<\/p>\n<p>Regardless of which side has the stronger argument, the escalation of economic, trade, technological, and geopolitical tensions may have been inevitable. What started as a trade war now threatens to escalate into a permanent state of mutual animosity. This is reflected in the Trump administration\u2019s National Security Strategy, which deems China a strategic \u2018competitor\u2019 that should be contained on all fronts.<\/p>\n<p>Accordingly, the US is sharply restricting Chinese foreign direct investment in sensitive sectors, and pursuing other actions to ensure Western dominance in strategic industries such as artificial intelligence and 5G. It is pressuring partners and allies not to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative, China\u2019s massive program to build infrastructure projects across the Eurasian landmass. And it is increasing US Navy patrols in the East and South China Seas, where China has grown more aggressive in asserting its dubious territorial claims.<\/p>\n<p>The global consequences of a Sino-American cold war would be even more severe than those of the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union. Whereas the Soviet Union was a declining power with a failing economic model, China will soon become the world\u2019s largest economy, and will continue to grow from there. Moreover, the US and the Soviet Union traded very little with each other, whereas China is fully integrated in the global trading and investment system, and deeply intertwined with the US, in particular.<\/p>\n<p>A full-scale cold war thus could trigger a new stage of de-globalization, or at least a division of the global economy into two incompatible economic blocs. In either scenario, trade in goods, services, capital, labor, technology, and data would be severely restricted, and the digital realm would become a \u2018splinternet\u2019, wherein Western and Chinese nodes would not connect to one another. Now that the US has imposed sanctions on ZTE and Huawei, China will be scrambling to ensure that its tech giants can source essential inputs domestically, or at least from friendly trade partners that are not dependent on the US.<\/p>\n<p>In this balkanized world, China and the US will both expect all other countries to pick a side, while most governments will try to thread the needle of maintaining good economic ties with both. After all, many US allies now do more business (in terms of trade and investment) with China than they do with America. Yet in a future economy where China and the US separately control access to crucial technologies such as AI and 5G, the middle ground will most likely become uninhabitable. Everyone will have to choose, and the world may well enter a long process of de-globalization.<\/p>\n<p>Whatever happens, the Sino-American relationship will be the key geopolitical issue of this century. Some degree of rivalry is inevitable. But, ideally, both sides would manage it constructively, allowing for cooperation on some issues and healthy competition on others. In effect, China and the US would create a new international order, based on the recognition that the (inevitably) rising new power should be granted a role in shaping global rules and institutions.<\/p>\n<p>If the relationship is mismanaged \u2014 with the US trying to derail China\u2019s development and contain its rise, and China aggressively projecting its power in Asia and around the world \u2014 a full-scale cold war will ensue, and a hot one (or a series of proxy wars) cannot be ruled out. In the twenty-first century, the Thucydides Trap would swallow not just the US and China, but the entire world.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-14525\" src=\"http:\/\/192.163.207.100\/~timesku1\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/06\/rabani.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"100\" height=\"100\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>Nouriel Roubini<\/strong><\/span><br \/>\n<em><span style=\"color: #800000;\">CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Professor of Economics at the Stern School of Business, NYU.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A few years ago, as part of a Western delegation to China, I met President Xi Jinping in Beijing\u2019s Great Hall of the People. When addressing us, Xi argued that China\u2019s rise would be peaceful, and that other countries \u2014 namely, the United States \u2014 need not worry about the \u2018Thucydides Trap\u2019, so named for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14526,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,54],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14524","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-viewpoint"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global Consequences of a Sino-American Cold War - TimesKuwait<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/timeskuwait.com\/news\/global-consequences-of-a-sino-american-cold-war\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Consequences of a Sino-American Cold War - TimesKuwait\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A few years ago, as part of a Western delegation to China, I met President Xi Jinping in Beijing\u2019s Great Hall of the People. 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