By S A H Rizvi
Chief of Bureau
New Delhi
Ending week of speculation President Xi Jinping will not attend the G20 summit scheduled to begin on September 9 in New Delhi, India. China will be represented by Premier Li Qiang. India is hosting this annual gathering of the influential group G 20 on September 9 and 10.
Xi’s decision to skip the G20 summit holds significance, as the Chinese president has never missed a G20 summit until now.
Renowned defence analyst and former Military Secretary General Ata Hasnain says is deliberate of course. “I do think most of us did not expect him to come to India for the G20 Summit.
His policy towards India has been one of utter confusion and a very marked lack of ‘thinking through’. I continue to go by my old assessment that China is unsure whether India is a friend, competitor, adversary, or partner.”
Gen Hasnain said in an interview that China perceives by resolving the disputed boundaries with India, it will open options for India to aspire for much more. That is why it likes to keep everything in the grey zone. In the backdrop of this policy, one cannot see Xi Jinping giving PM Narendra Modi any strategic advantage by contributing to the success of the G20 meeting, avers Gen Hasnain.
“I am sure most nations will term this petty-mindedness. With attempted cartographic invasion through the publishing of maps showing Indian territories as belonging to China, that too just a few days before the Summit, one should not have expected more”.
Striking a discordant note Gen Hasnain said what Mr Xi’s advisors probably did not tell him is that ‘surprise’ remains a prime principle of war. He could have won accolades for himself and displayed a sense of maturity had he decided to come, and surprise everyone.
China will still be represented by no less than its PM; it will say what it must and object to the very same issues but all that happening with Xi’s presence would have sent a different message.
The General said China has never been serious about resolving the LAC issue. As per Article 10 of the 1996 border agreement, both sides agreed to the exchange of maps to help clarify the alignment of the LAC. 2002 was the last time any attempt at the exchange of maps was made. Thereafter there have only been attempts at what is commonly referred to as ‘salami slicing’.
Most strategic analysts agree that China prefers to keep all this ambiguous so that India is forced to give higher priority to her continental borders in the north as against the zones of maritime interest in the Indian Ocean, through which China’s vulnerable sea lines of communication (SLsOC) run.
These SLsOC are China’s economic lifeline,transporting tons of energy to the manufacturing zones on the East Coast in the Shenzen area. They also carry thousands of containers of finished goods to trading destinations, he added
By removing threats to our northern borders China fears that it would give India far too much leeway and flexibility which could affect Chinese maritime interests. The LAC-related issues therefore help to keep the Sino-Indian standoff in a state of activation and give India fewer options.
Neither has India ever sought war nor is it in its interest either. The paradox is that China too cannot be certain that it can achieve anything against India by going to war. The factor of winnability of wars remains unpredictable; especially now, after Ukraine.
India should aim to develop comprehensively and close the development gap as much as it can over the next few years. Through its engagements with China, it should be made clear that the two countries can mutually benefit to a great extent through technical cooperation.
Russia has been India’s steadfast friend for long. As a result of the dynamics of the emerging world order after the Coronavirus pandemic, Russia has been largely isolated from the mainstream and the sanctions are affecting it too. India’s support through the purchase of energy from Russia has helped stabilise the Russian economy.
President Putin’s potential absence from the Summit was expected, as he did not attend the last G20 Summit in Bali or the BRICS Summit in South Africa.
India should pursue its relations independently with both nations. They are all partners in SCO, RIC and BRICS where group and mutual interests can both be discussed and progressed separately.