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Indian political horizon looks hazy and uncertain as counting begins tomorrow
December 7, 2013, 9:54 am

India waits with bated breath on the outcome of the elections results to the five  state assembly Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Mizoram which many political analysts feel is the semi final before the final of 2014 Parliamentary elections.

The results will be announced on Sunday.

At stake in the election is the reputation of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who is the BJP Prime Ministerial candidate and party trump card, as a win in four of the Hindi speaking belt could set the tone and momentum for the right wing party to grab power at the Center.

If it fails, the Modi magic will disappear within minutes and the BJP may have to alter its strategy ahead of the Lok Sabha elections.

Congress led UPA is facing the toughest time of its existence not only of the corruption charges but also by the price rise phenomena which has hit Indian of all segments.  Many blame the ruling coalition policies for the declining graph of the UPA.

But it is Delhi election which is attracting most attention

Shedding its dubious reputation of being apathetic to elections, the Capital broke the 61.5 per cent turnout record it set in its very first assembly elections of 1993 on Wednesday.  The final tally has hit  70 per cent fueling speculation that this, in the backdrop of rising prices and corruption charges, could mean bad news for the ruling Congress. Voter enthusiasm also led the Election Commission to delay the closure of some booths by three and a half hours in an unprecedented step.

But this is the first election in Delhi where everything looked hazy and unpredictable from the beginning.  The BJP, which is tipped to emerge as the largest single party and close to power looks as uncertain as the Congress which is not sure that it could retain power for the fourth time.

The reason for this uncertainty among the major political party is the emergence of Aam Aadmi Party of Arvind Kejriwal making its political debut and may become the spoiler

This Delhi election is seen as the toughest electoral battle of chief minister Sheila Dikshit's career as she is not only fighting to ensure her party returns to power for a fourth time but is also facing stiff competition in her own constituency with AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal and BJP's former state president Vijender Gupta as her opponents.

Even as the BJP and AAP interpreted the turnout as a vote in their favour, Dikshit refused to reveal her assessment of the trend. "I am not an astrologer and I can't predict election results," she told reporters immediately after the 5 pm deadline ended.

Resentment against the Congress led UPA government at the Centre could hurt Dikshit's prospects in Delhi,  "There is no anti-incumbency wave against Sheila's government, but this is definitely a tough battle for her as she is facing the anger and strong dissatisfaction of the public against the UPA government at the Centre," said Kumar from an NGO

Kumar, however, added that an increased turnout does not indicate which party would benefit. "If you look at the assembly elections in the last two decades there is absolutely no correlation between the anti-incumbency sentiment and increased voter participation. If that were true then Gujarat, Bihar and Punjab (which registered an increase in voting percentage) would not have re-elected the state governments there," Kumar said.

But psephologist and AAP leader Yogendra Yadav said, "The moment we go beyond the record turnout mark then there is a possibility that that (increased voter participation) could benefit the Aam Aadmi Party."

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