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Higher-education glut poses challenges for China
August 21, 2016, 3:06 pm

China has always valued education, reflecting its Confucian tradition, according to which one must excel scholastically to achieve high professional and social status. But today, the country is stricken with what some call ‘education fever’, as middle-class Chinese parents demand more schooling for their children, and as young people seek ways to avoid the drudgery of factory life.

China’s government, by emphasizing the need for a better-educated workforce to compete with the West, is fueling this trend. This year alone, China produced 7.65 million university graduates and around 9 million high school students took the gaokao, China’s general university admission exam. These are staggering figures, even for a country with a billion people.

Education is never a bad thing in itself, but the move toward ‘mass universities’ of the type that emerged in the West after World War II is occurring too fast and has arrived too soon for the Chinese economy to accommodate it. With China’s transition to a post-industrial economy far from complete, significantly broadening access to university undermines the quality of education and has high collateral costs, socially and economically.

For example, to meet the Communist Party’s ambitious enrollment goals, institutions have lowered admission standards and matriculated students into fields of study with no market value, just to accommodate them. This has severely degraded the quality of education at second- and third-tier universities concentrated in China’s inner provinces, thus widening the development gap between China’s urban coast and rural hinterland.

Meanwhile, China, with a graduate unemployment rate of 16 percent, is producing more highly educated workers than the economy can absorb. The wage premium for workers with a bachelor’s degree has decreased by roughly 20 percent in recent years, and new graduates often must accept jobs – such as street cleaning – for which they are vastly overqualified.

In its push for universal higher education and global status, China is stringing its young people along with the promise of high-paid, meaningful employment after graduation. It is a promise that China will not be able to fulfill for a very long time.

For starters, China confronts global economic conditions that are beyond its control. China wants to shift its economic model away from manufacturing and toward services, where its many graduates could be gainfully employed; but it is currently locked into its position at the bottom of most global value chains.

When global values chains grow and new jobs are created, those jobs are distributed according to a country’s competitive advantage. Because China has long specialized in low-skill tasks, this is the kind of work that will be left for Chinese laborers. If the smartphone industry expands, for example, Silicon Valley will hire more engineers, and Shenzhen will hire more assemblers to build what those engineers design.

Restructuring the Chinese economy is a long-term project. In the short term, China should make higher education far more exclusive, so that it is true to its purpose. Chinese universities should produce higher-quality graduates at a slower rate, and all other students should matriculate through vocational programs, which will lose their current stigma as they become the primary educational option.

(Excerpts from an article by Edoardo Campanella, a eurozone economist at UniCredit and Junior Fellow at the Aspen Institute.)


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